Young Markets

The Conference for the Future of Markets – Alpha Needs Innovation

“Agenda 2032”

The Friday session at Young Markets will be devoted to the “Agenda 2032” Exercize led by COMDAQ Chairman, UNCTAD expert and serial entrepreneur, Colin Howard, looking at how the world may change in the next 20 years. Here is the thesis in brief:

The question

What can happen to change attitudes, expectations, behaviour and economic
activity in an increasingly corrupt and dishonest world that has lost its
moral compass in too many areas? And what would the impact of that change
be?  How particularly would it affect market activity, which is the
fundamental key to commercial activity, and thus the gross domestic product
of the World?

Setting the scene

You are to imagine that the year is 2032, and that you are in a senior
leadership position within your nominated industry or activity.  It is your
task to give the annual report for that year.  The history of earlier years
is set by the implosion of the EEC in 2014, followed by the collapse of
manufacturing in China – and the emergency powers executed by the World
Council for Economic Recovery in 2015.  The major outcome of this was the
creation of the Personal Responsibility Contract as a supplement to all
National Law, and enforceable internationally.

 

Among the Topics For Discussion

1. A statement from the Minister on the progress being made to ensure that safe sex may be enjoyed by all, and yet be properly taxed

2. The progress made by the Genetic Food Company plc to provide automated balanced calorie meals for the forecast 10 Billion population

3. The United Nations Secretary General on the progress made to deliver clean water as a right to all people

4. The Chairman of Betfoul plc on the action taken to ensure that addicts are not allowed to indulge

5. The coordinator of (vehicular) traffic management control on the extension of booked traffic slots into areas of low population

6. The charity commissioners on the removal of abusive charities internationally

7. The President of the “Alternative Work Army”  (aka, the unemployed) on the activities that are creating activity and interest for almost 20%  of the world population

8. The integrator of world airport travel, following the introduction of centralised hubs in North Africa, Northern Australia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan

9. The International currency controller, on progress made with a virtual settlement “currency”

10. The Medical Officer in Chief, on the effect of sending any person classified as obese to spend time with the Alternative Work Army, until cured.

2032

I. Setting the scene

DUSAN DOBROMIROV – Demographics

CORINA CHIRILEASA – Information

ADRIAN FITZPATRICK – Police and regulation

II. Markets

PLY – People market

JOHN BARKER – Sex

FLIP PIDOT – Gambling

MIROSLAV FERENCAK – Energy

ROBERT SWAGGER – Currency

III. FLORIAN GOLDSTEIN – thoughts

I. Setting the scene

DUSAN DOBROMIROV – Demographics

Present days problems:

  • each year less students
  • Serbia primary school students – less by 40%
  • the demographic problem directly affects all sectors – including the finance sector
  • an important percentage of the population in western countries is Muslim population- thus a Sharia impact on world’s finance
  • pension system not very reliable in the future
  • modern world standards are affecting life – number of people in the most developed countries is decreasing

CORINA CHIRILEASA – Information

  • How much are people paying in average per month to get financial information?
  • How much do you value this information you pay for? PLY: 100 USD/year, a lot of data, maybe 2% worth thousands of dollars.
  • There is a lot of information out there, too much information. Nobody pays for this information. Nobody pays to get that exact 2% quality information.
  • Somebody should pay something for bits of information in order for this information to become a commodity.
  • A peak of the information is going to be reached soon
  • We can see signs of people trying to un-connect from this unwanted information, trying to choose exactly what they need from this big amount of information (people closing Facebook accounts, people running away from Google).
  • When talking about sharing information – everybody has a social network profile – not sure how many would want to share all the information there in 20 years from now.
  • Information will become valuable – less media companies but profitable and powerful – controlling the information.
  • Responsability and regulation: these future media companies will have to respect certain rules and regulations, because they are providing a lot of valuable information for a lot of money for people using this information in decision making etc.
  • in 20 years from now people will get information not by reading it on their phones, laptops, pads etc but by receiving it in their brains somehow – through various chips implanted – thanks to the development of nanotechnology.
  • Responsability and regulation: these future media companies will have to respect certain rules and regulations, because they are providing a lot of valuable information for a lot of money for people using this information in decision making etc.
  • in 20 years from now people will get information not by reading it on their phones, laptops, pads etc but by receiving it in their brains somehow – through various chips implanted – thanks to the development of nanotechnology.
  • cessible for those who can pay for it.
  • Financial Markets: there is a lot of information available now, useful for investors. In the future markets will be less and less transparent – but less transparent markets mean more gains for people.

ADRIAN FITZPATRICK – Police and regulation
2032
Police:

  • there will be no prisons. A “securer” will watch people in their houses. That will cut the expenditures of states.
  • the world is full of CCTV anyway in 2012
  • who will need police on the streets when we have CCTV everywhere?
  • the Police will be a giant system of cameras installed everywhere, even in our homes.
  • “paperless money” – that means no criminality from that perspective

Regulation:

  • classic regulation will disappear
  • pre-programmed rules and matters around anything that happens
  • governments and states will be able to download specific apps for specific people
  • computer based control in all aspects and on all systems- technology is just what drives us forward
  • in society most things can be controlled electronically
  • the policing will be definitely done very much electronically (surveillance, control).

II. Markets

PLY – People market

  • people are great resources but in the same time they can represent liabilities
  • if we look back and analyze the evolution in the number of people – the main perspective in 20 years from now is that there will be too many people
  • the biggest problem will be feeding that population – will there be nutritious food or artificial food?
  • space travel will be available in 20 years from now, that will sort the problem of congestion and at the same time will bring out a lot of commercial opportunities
  • life expectancy will continue to rise through nanotechnology
  • society is changing
  • an incredible opportunity will rise for people who will create and design, a great opportunity for people who can work with technology and help pushing forward
  • the aging population will represent a problem, how do we use these people productively?
  • there is going to be a huge number of small businesses
  • tourism will be a huge growth area
  • commodity markets and manufacturing markets of the future will increasingly be outside the planet Earth
  • global niches: sport, entertainment etc will represent new opportunities
  • Conclusions: big population, problem in feeding and providing jobs, at the same time, through technology breakthrough, new opportunities will rise in all sectors, space travel will be available and that would  lead to space tourism, relocate businesses like commodity and manufacturing markets, it will be a huge number of small businesses, global niches will create new jobs for people, aging population yet another problem.

JOHN BARKER – Sex

  • Fact – 2012 – 4 million people in the UK use adult websites, that’s 1 in 10 people registered in using the services of these websites – the effect of an aggressive marketing
  • 2032

    • the sex related services will absolutely represent a global market
    • in terms of what we need for that market to be safe and secure – health and safety regulation
    • this market will represent an opportunity for a central, global exchange – massive potential market, with a massive revenue stream needed to be cleared
    • trust will be the central element of this market – trust is needed for people to trade these services, to feel safe and secure.
    • a market sector of virtual sex through nanotechnology microchips and the innovative technology of the future

FLIP PIDOT – Gambling
2032

  • US and world financial regulation was reformed 20 years ago, betting exchanges developed rapidly
  • peer to peer betting is available, users can design their own bet propositions
  • because of the massive distributed scandal of wager origination of peer to peer format, betters can now check the community reputation scores of the originating users free bets aided by recent acquisition of “Clout.com”- brought confidence in non-manipulation.
  • premium users can now access and download the auto ERP app which serves for similar or related propositions originated by different users, algorithmically exploits price differences between different bets
  • trading firms have launched trading floors next to Sport Arenas to exploit few millisecond latency advantages
  • gambling addiction – government bodies stated that gambling addiction does not exist – for the rare diagnosed cases the betting exchanges are practising low commissions on winnings
  • self regulatory bodies – market finds a solution when a transparency/awareness of the abuse exists
  • gambling markets are bigger than the financial markets
  • Clout.com aggregates how much people on social networks re-send what you send, act upon the content you generate, and a score is issued about how credible or influential you are in those social networks. So if people were originating different bets or propositions – one way to filter these is to use this community.

MIROSLAV FERENCAK – Energy
2032

  • sufficient wind turbines, solar power plants all over Sahara, all rivers – hydro power etc.

2012 – 2032

  • there will still be a demand for fossil fuel
  • nuclear power plants – all people fear now – 2012 – the third generation of nuclear plants is developing – self storage of uranium, the fourth generation will be based on recycled nuclear fuel
  • electric cars
  • water – hydrogen as a fuel
2012 – in order to produce clean energy we need to consume a lot more classic fuel – maybe that will happen in 20 years also

  • we cannot use solar power in order to produce solar power
  • nuclear fusion
  • alternative fuels – ethanol
Colin remarks on energy –
Cowardice –
lack of courage to confront the green lobby, coward politicians in the face of nuclear accidents
Lies
– nuclear danger
Prejudice
Production should be appropiate for the community
We have to confront the prejudice that has been “advertised” by the Greens and accept that nuclear power is right
1 unit of electricity is produced by 4 units of something else

ROBERT SWAGGER – Currency
2012

  • the future of currency is limited
  • exchanges or firms trading currencies should be careful and fear the changes the future will bring
  • why do we trade currency if currency will no longer be the currency we know today?
  • history repeats itself, everything comes in full cycles, what is the reinvented version of what used to be?
  • 2012 people live on credit
  • cash, credit, confidence, criminals – 4 Cs scenario in the global change ever seen
  • Media on the verge of a major dramatic change
  • we all should respect and appreciate money, it’s an art, the way is created, the design
  • how do we make this evolutionary change? – the main thing about money is how it flows
  • the power of money the influence – what’s good and bad? some people do bad things because they can do a lot of money, and we can see money used to manipulate people, states pay huge amounts in order to influence other states
  • times have changed – before 2000 if you pulled out a credit card you would have slowed down the transaction but now credit transactions are the fastest – credit is the best way to go in the society
  • credit companies guarantee that the customers get the best rate for conversion for currencies for using credit instead of cash
  • all bills can be paid online
  • banks are all online – a lot of the transactions are online
  • banks are moving in retail stores, airports everywhere
  • payments using smart-phones
  • transparency – when buying e.g. a car you compare all car dealers prices, conditions etc
  • in the next 20 years we will track almost everything: the parts in our future car –  learn the value of each component etc.
  • the more micro we get the more value we discover; whether is about individual relationships or anything else, the more information is out there the smarter we get – living in a transparent society
  • what is your credit worthiness is what it matters
2032
  • facial recognition systems:
  • once photo taken and fined on the highway, next time speeding – the face recognition system from the CCTV will signal for a direct transaction with an amount from your account for paying the fine
  • airports – to find any criminals
  • face recognized when entered a restaurant – Google sends you a message on your phone, you receive a coupon for a discount if you opted for the face recognition app for those services
  • when you sign up for google for the face recognition app – you get a coupon for entering a restaurant but you get fined when speeding and your face is recognised
  • Money flows, money is art, money is powerful
  • people reactive respond because of money – banks do that, exchanges do that, the governments do that
  • the technological revolution continues to grow and that brings us new ways to make money, to make micro-businesses and we can track everything a person does
  • the new economy means greater transparency, greater trust, greater efficiency
  • the Future of Credit:
  • cash and coins will disappear
  • credit as pure value – what do I consume, use
  • you receive credit for-  your work –  as a remuneration

– for doing good, for giving blood, for voting – (through face recognition)
– for living a healthy life etc.

  • you can use your phone for payments – at a push of a button, voice recognition and eyes recognition and other devices that monitor the body (to make sure the one who pays is alive)

III. FLORIAN GOLDSTEIN – thoughts

  • the concept of economic cycles – was launched by the communists -1925 Nikolai Kondratiev
  • “I don’t agree with this idea of cycles because nothing in the economy sustain this idea – it is only an optimistic message”
  • global annual GDP is 51 trillion dollars while the global debt is  around 1.000 trillion – when you compare these figures you will understand it will be not a cycle – the debt cannot be redeemed
  • don’t agree with the diversification of the initial business – we will have employees from various ares of activity and of diverse competence and they can’t be managed by a central management; each activity should have its own management to run the business and to think the strategy on the specific market. Maybe the distinct business won’t be market leaders but the entire holding will be very profitable.
  • all Nobel prize laureates for economy in the last 10 years, except for one,  recommended a better integration, strong rules, a central management and surveillance – the only Nobel prize laureate who didn’t recommend these actions was a woman – Elinor Ostrom, 2009- because she wasn’t focused on the crisis, she was focused on the collective management of local resources –  every community must manage its own business – she proposed 10 simple rules for applying this.
  • these ideas also apply to the banking system – can banking and financial systems be managed from a central point?

e.g Pennsylvania 1740 – a bank system didn’t exist, only a state owned central bank existed, which credited business

  • maybe in the future we won’t find neither capitalism, nor communism but a local resource management system
  • maybe inventions and innovations in all sectors will provide the identity of a new world

Robert Swagger remark on Florin Goldstein’s insertion
“Maybe in the future an exchange in its purest form, bringing buyers and sellers together, looking at the future pricing, predictive analysis and valuation,  will achieve the idea of a local resource management system, maintaining local culture but including the excess goods the community possess – resulting in a very robust, powerful exchange ecosystem where we can truly place micro-goods, whether is payments, future predictions, future valuations, respecting regional needs but looking on global transactions.”

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